ICTworks by Inveneo

Recently, Apple released its 4th quarter earnings, and the numbers were stunning. Macrumors spells out the highlights of what is now the most valuable public company on earth:

Apple shipped 5.2 million Macintosh computers during the quarter, a unit increase of 26 percent over the year-ago quarter. Quarterly iPhone unit sales reached 37.04 million, up 128 percent from the year-ago quarter... Apple also sold 15.43 million iPads during the quarter, up 111 percent over the year-ago quarter. Apple set new company records for iPhone, iPad, and Mac sales during the quarter.

But all those numbers are pretty abstract. Can you even fathom a company where:

1. The iTunes Store alone generated 50 percent more revenue than all of Yahoo did last quarter
2. Apple's profit for the year beats Google’s total revenue for the year
3. Apple's quarterly revenues are over double Microsoft's quarterly revenues

I have a pretty good imagination, and I am still trying to comprehend what all that means. But there is one small metric that is no dream. Its a metric that should have every IT company concerned too:

Apple sold more iPads alone than HP sold PC's

Oh, and iPads are only 20% of Apple's overall revenue stream. Which means that every IT company in America, Africa, and around the world will need to have an iPad strategy in 2012. No more is the PC - desktop or laptop - the center of the computing experience. The iPhone (and to a lesser extent) Android own the mobile phone space and the iPad is now cannibalizing the PC market as people find the sleek aluminum and glass tablet more convenient and powerful than many computers.

iPads are in Africa already

I can hear a few people in the ICT4D space saying "so what?" They believe that iPads are not Bottom of the Pyramid products. To an extent, they are right - most Africans are not buying iPads as consumer items, like is done in wealthy countries. Yet, iPads are here, and cheaper than in Europe.

IDG reports that IT and business professionals in Africa are twice as likely (47%) to use an iPad purchased by their employer than their colleagues elsewhere in the world (23%), and possibly as a result, iPad users in Africa tended to use their devices more for business than entertainment and their levels of work-based communication using an iPad were higher than average.

But what should be noticed is that levels of hardware substitution in Africa are very close to the global norm. 73% said their iPad had partly or completely replaced their laptop. That means desktop and laptop vendors need to develop an iPad strategy now.

Not a tablet strategy, mind you, but an iPad strategy. So far, its the only tablet that matters as IDG found "incredible" brand loyalty to Apple - only 19% of those surveyed in Africa would consider purchasing a non-Apple tablet. And iPad users are popping everywhere, even in rural agriculture.

Question is: what does an iPad strategy look like?

This is an open question. I've explored the iPad's impact on education, but as to an iPad sales strategy, I'm still a bit lost. I do know we all need to find one asap. Or we will all be working in a Genius Bar before we know it.

Last year, the Canadian/Indian company Datawind, announced the $35 Aakash Android tablet computer as an ICT solution for education. While I still believe that the Aakash will fail education like OLPC did, do not take that as a mark of complete failure. The Aakash Ubislate 7 should be viewed as consumer electronics, and as such, it will be a roaring success.

Free Internet access

Just look at Datawind's core technology, which is all about squeezing waste from Internet data transfers to make even 2G bandwidth feel fast and snappy on a weak chipset.

Its Internet compression technology (18 patents issued & approved) reduces network load, and speeds delivery of content by factors of 10X to 30X. Like the Amazon Silk browser, Datawind offloads much of the browser computation to servers, so just the pertinent web content downloads to the device, not all the webpage bloat that now consumes most browsing bandwidth

During a talk at the World Bank, the Datawind CEO Suneet Singh Tuli revealed that his goal was to use this technology to make the bandwidth usage so cheap that it became ad-supported. In effect, free to the end user. This is the modern killer app - free Internet.

Today, Internet access costs us all significantly more than hardware or software, more than electricity even. Even Intel says that bandwidth costs are the single largest barrier to ICT adoption. And Datawind has cracked that nut.

Just look at the numbers

Now a $47 tablet is exciting. I know a number of geeks who got all lustful for it, who don't even live in India. And in India... Well, let us read what the Wall Street Journal has to say:

On December 14... the Aakash [went one sale] on sale for the absurd price of 2500 rupees, or around $47, hoping to move 100,000 units over the course of 2012. That figure was seen as staggeringly optimistic, since it represented 40 percent of India’s total market for tablet computers. But as soon as the announcement went all, their call center was jammed with calls, and their website started crashing due to excess traffic, to the point where their Internet provider warned them they might be experiencing a malicious hack attack. Their initial inventory of 30,000 units sold out in three days. Within two weeks, they’d built up a backlog of 1.4 million preorders. According to CEO Suneet Tuli, that reservation pool is now over 2 million - and still going strong.

Just wait till the word gets out that $47 is close to the total cost of ownership in India! If the Ubislate 7 uses the Datawind servers when it connects to the Internet from Africa or America, expect this revolution in Internet access to spread faster than Facebook and Twitter combined!

I am Mbwana Alliy of Afrinnovator, and in my last post, I predicted tablets would start surfacing into the mainstream in Africa this year, especially within education. When I wrote that post I had not even given a second thought that the One Laptop Per Child (OLPC) would be a factor to consider. And I still don’t think they will be at this stage even with all the buzz and excitement coming out of the Consumer Electronics Show (CES) which kicks off this week.

I personally think CES is increasingly becoming a bad predictor of what’s hot in the coming year- last year, Android tablets were meant to go mainstream with the introduction of Android 3.0 Honeycomb- that did not happen as much as Android smartphones took the world by storm. I also don’t think launching a tablet aimed at the developing world will elicit the sort of reaction from the right audience- are there any school teachers from the developing world or indeed African ministries of education going to be in Las Vegas this week?

The XO3 tablet actually looks really good. Great hardware design. Very thoughtful on specs and ports you’d expect on a tablet to allow all sorts of accessories from external drive, mic/headphone to multiple power charging port options. The power and charging feature have me most excited- the ARM chipset power efficiency and the cover doubling as a solar panel makes solar and hand crank charging practical. 6 mins cranking gives 1 hour usage, 1 hour solar charging gives 2 hours of use- not bad.

Continuing on the hardware side, it would be nice to have 3G wireless connectivity option (expensive and power hungry I know). But I feel this allows the tablet to be a lot more mobile given the growth of mobile internet in Africa- I feel relying on wifi in the classroom is limiting, after all the tablet is meant to be owned by the child and hence taken home- how are they meant to do research and homework when wifi at home is not guaranteed? 3G may also not be guaranteed but as I predicted- I feel it will grow this year to support smartphone growth and even then 2G speeds may still be able to allow the device to download ebooks- always on connection is better than no connection in my opinion. I guess they can just be books loaded for offline reading, 4GB space is plenty to hold this type of content.

On the software side, I am relieved that there will be an Android option- I feel like the linux based Sugar OS is pointless given history of linux projects backed with organizations with limited support- why not build on Android and further customize for educational needs? This is where we start to hit some of the issues I have with the OLPC model.

I did some digging and found that the OLPC initiative has shipped around 2M laptops since they begun 6 years ago. When you hone in on Africa, they don’t even approach 250,000. Its pathetic really- the OLPC has not delivered on its mission (at least in Africa) yet and it has to do with its distribution model. The devices have always been sold via Educational ministries and here lies the first problem, in Africa this is just not practical unless you go via President Kagame in Rwanda who has an iron fist rule and can push things forward quickly. Recently there were suggestions of air dropping laptops and tablets to schools-I am assuming a response to get around corrupt governments? All this still doesn’t help address the core mission of OLPC- education and getting as many devices out there as possible.

The gadget and hardware business is becoming increasingly fast paced and risky. And the commercial market has proven time and time again to be the best way to both reduce price and increase volume to the masses…Even then, success is not guaranteed, look what happened to HP and RIM/Blackberry with their tablet forays last year? In contrast look at Amazon’s kindle fire, the only real competitor to the iPad- important lessons can be drawn here.

Ultimately it comes down to price in Africa (and indeed other parts of the world)- lets hope they can hit the $200 price point at retail ($100 would be near impossible in Africa this year). Then there is the $35 Indian Aakesh tablet- a wild card initiated by the Government, they have shunned the OLPC model by at least taking charge of their own destiny- in this model they have dummed down the tablet functionality and are probably heavily subsidizing it to hit the $35 price point. India’s market is so vast, they could easily sell 5M in 1 year and be considered a success.

So is the OLPC XO 3.0 right for Africa? I would say no if they intend to achieve their mission anytime soon… Here are some things I would do to improve OLPCs model in Africa:

1. Diversify the distribution model: They should consider partnering with mobile operators to distribute, market and subsidize as well as add a 3G wireless chip. These organizations already have scale in Africa and they can help distribute the tablet much more efficiently and are more aligned to partner. Safaricom sold 350,000 Ideos smartphones in less than 6 months- how many other smartphones and feature phones were sold this way? Try 600M.
2. Build better on the ground partnerships & Focus on content distribution: Take advantage of AppStore (yes, stick to Android) for local distribution of content and empower developers together with educational ministries, education NGOs within target countries to develop content. Working with mobile operators also makes it easier to do so. By working with local organizations on the ground they can better assess content and other needs- they can also be valuable training partners for teachers who can then teach students. “Driveby tablet dropping” will not work.
3. Learn from Amazon, pick one use case and nail it, then expand: Amazon started with the kindle ebook reader, proved there was demand then scaled out to other use cases before bringing it to a full blown tablet over time- the model is less risky than betting on a bunch of tablet features up front and not have any traction, this would avoid the mistakes of RIM/Blackberry and HP. It also helps you focus on price initially and tier additional features over time.
4. Change the name away from OLPC: The name is already outdated, just as Apple Computer became just Apple, they need to recognize that their mission is not likely to be served by doing PC laptops anymore. Tablets are perfect for education, recognize that fast or be outsold by others. Laptops/PCs are better suited for productivity. I would be very surprised if they didn’t do this soon- otherwise they will just create confusion and sound outdated.
5. Become a social enterprise, Charities can’t compete in the hardware business: They should move away from a not-for-profit model. A fully profit model would be too hard for them to transition at this stage, so they should do the next best thing and become a social enterprise- this would allow them to access more capital for scaling up from the growing number of impact investors interested in education within Africa and around the world. They can then address more practical distribution models vs relying on Governments and air drops. Better distribution models for both the devices and content that I mentioned is ultimately the name of the game in the hardware business. Right now OLPC is a design house with very limited scale- and after 6 years, they should be scaling out if they are to achieve their mission this decade.

Here is a good video from the verge to learn more about the device.

This was originally published as Thoughts on OLPC-XO 3.0- Is it the right tablet for Schools in Africa? and is shared here with Mbwana's permission

Much has been written about India’s unveiling of the $35 tablet Aakash. There is debate about Aakash’s potential to change the educational paradigm, about its quality and specifications being up to commercial standards, about its "Made in India" tag and about its claim as the world’s cheapest tablet.

To continue this debate in a slightly different direction, I am Mustafa Naseem and I argue that Aakash has the potential to change the current scenario of limited access to computing for the majority of the world’s population outside of these discussions.

The need for context appropriate computing technologies:

When Martin Cooper placed the world’s first call from a portable cellular phone in 1973, he likely never imagined cell phones to become universally pervasive in less than 40 years. Why did the cell phone become so popular in the developing world? Take a look at Nokia 1100, the world’s best selling phone handset: it was low cost, easy to use, had a long battery life and only required a SIM card to connect its owner to the rest of the world.

To its credit, it also had a number of other features including a dust-proof rubber keypad, a flashlight accessible by a single touch and a near child-proof robust design. If we consider the primary four features listed above, the Nokia 1100 sets the standard for technology for the developing world −cost, connectivity, usability and a decent battery.

Aakash as appropriate technology:

The Aakash more or less meets these criteria. With its $60 retail price tag ($50 for the Government of India), it has come remarkably close to the $30 price point that led to widespread adoption of cell phones like the Nokia 1100. It use of a touch screen and the Android Operating System make it relatively easy to use after the initial learning curve that we all go through with new technologies.

The Akaash is equipped with a 2100 mAh battery, 2 watts of power consumption and has a solar charging option for users who are simply off the grid. The tablets are equipped with a GPRS module that supplements WiFi compatibility, which will help users connect through the maze of cellular networks. Apart from these features, the Aakash comes with 2 USB ports, a 3.5 mm audio input/output jack, and support for all popular text, audio and video formats.

Aakash has its shortfalls: a resistive touch screen, no access to the Android Market for apps, and a poor battery life to name a few. But at the given price point, I believe it is a decent piece of appropriate technology.

Market forces need to meet this demand:

In his speech at the 2011 Social Good Summit, Nicholas Negroponte said that he’d stop making low cost laptops if marketforces filled this gap. In the case of cell phones, manufacturers and providers supported the wide-scale adoption of cheap but useful phones to fill this gap.

Aakash gets us one step closer to the truly affordable and useful laptop than “specialty” educational machines (like the Simputer and XO) or full-powered Netbooks whose price hovers around $199 in most retail stores. India’s gigantic companies like Reliance are following this trend, and are manufacturing tablets like the Reliance 3G tablet in the $250-300 range. However, with Aakash’s release, things are bound to change – it’s a potentially powerful pricing function.

Government is seeding the change

By encouraging Data Wind to manufacture the Aakash for the educational market, the Government of India has encouraged competition at the lower end of the market, thereby unknowingly regulating the market for low cost computing devices. In an interview with NDTV, the CEO of Data Wind talked about an Aakash 2.0, which could have a capacitive touch screen, a 3G modem, a faster processor and an increased battery life at a similar price point.

We will now have to see if big giants like Reliance respond and how the quest continues for the truly commercially competitive, low cost computing device.

Recently there is much hoopla over this tweet by David Coltart, Minister of Education, Sport, Arts and Culture, in Zimbabwe:

Great meeting with Apple folk in Paris today; "school boxes" will take iPads and education apps to the most remote schools in Zimbabwe

David was referring to IADT's "School in a Box" (SIAB), which is a Peli Case filled with iPads, a solar panel, LED projector, and speakers, and many were excited that solar powered iPads would be rolling out to rural schools in Zim.

Now there isn't an iPad initiative in Zimbabwe, just the hopes for one, but I found the hopes around "School in a Box" to be even more misplaced. The School in a Box is a nice, self-contained computer hardware system, but let us be real.

This is NOT a "School in a Box" -->

A school is much more than just computer hardware. More than the cool apps that run on an iPad - even one with its own solar power and a projector to share its interface with a class. A school is the summation of many parts, almost all of them human. Teachers, students, administrators, parents and the surrounding community all working together to educate children and lead them to adulthood.

There is no way all that can be squeezed into a box or expected to come out of one.

Now technology can play a role. It can facilitate and accelerate the good intentions of the school community and student's curiosity and enthusiasm. It can take the educational experience to a new level. But it cannot work wonders. And a box of iPads alone is just that. A box of gadgets. Not a school.